Risk assessment for drought in Thailand using hidden markov models

Abstract

The objectives of this research are to propose a proper model for risk assessment for drought in Thailand. A hidden Markov model is adopted. The results indicate that the amount of rainfall depends on the hidden states, drought or non-drought state. If the state changes from drought to non-drought the amount of rain will increase. The probability of changing from drought state to non-drought state is higher than from drought state to drought state. The probability of drought occurrence in February is highest, followed by in November, March, December, January, July, April, June, October, September, August and May, respectively. When the temperature increases, the probability of drought occurrence will increase.